🧮 Education Needs Projection Calculator – General Logic

This tool helps districts or planners estimate how many schools are needed over a future period based on population growth and existing infrastructure.

🔢 Inputs Required

  1. Current school-age population (ages 6–14)
  2. Annual population growth rate (e.g., 1.85%)
  3. Number of years to project (e.g., 3 years from now)
  4. Current number of schools by type:
    • Primary
    • Middle
    • Secondary/Sr. Secondary
  5. Norms: max students per school (e.g., 150 per primary school)

📈 Steps Used in Projection

  1. Project population over N years:

    Year 1: P1 = P0 × (1 + g)
Year 2: P2 = P1 × (1 + g)
...
Year N: PN = PN-1 × (1 + g)

    Where:

    • P0 = current school-age population
    • g = annual growth rate (in decimal)

  2. Estimate schools needed:

    Schools Needed = Projected Population / Norm per School

    Apply separately for each school type if needed.

  3. Calculate school gap:

    Gap = Schools Needed - Current Number of Schools

🧠 Example

If you have 92,000 children aged 6–14 today, with a 1.85% growth rate, and want to project 3 years out:

Year 1: 92,000 × 1.0185 = 93,702
Year 2: 93,702 × 1.0185 = 95,435
Year 3: 95,435 × 1.0185 = 97,201

Then, if norm is 150 students per school:

Schools Needed = 97,201 / 150 ≈ 648
Current Schools = 584
Gap = 648 - 584 = 64 more schools needed

Use this calculator for any district. Khunti was used as an illustration.