Health System Overload

Context

This model simulates the dynamic burnout and recovery loop in an overburdened health system. It reflects what happens when patient inflow exceeds system capacity, such as during epidemics, seasonal surges, or chronic understaffing.

Key Variables

Patient Inflow: Steady demand entering the system.
Healthcare Staff: Staff capacity which depletes under pressure.
Overload Level: Ratio that indicates whether the system is over capacity.
Staff Burnout Rate: Staff attrition increases with overload.
Recovery Hiring: New staff recruitment triggered when the system is critically stressed.

Feedback Loops

Negative Loop: Burnout leads to fewer staff, increasing overload.
Balancing Loop: Emergency hiring helps restabilize the system when overload is high.

Policy Relevance

Useful for modeling public sector capacity planning under stress. Can be extended for district-level PHC systems, ICU load modeling, or integrating training pipelines for nurses/doctors.

Region/Application

India during COVID-19 surges, rural PHC staff depletion, or maternal care overload in underserved areas.