How to Write a Theory of Change (ToC) Note

For Development Programs in India

A Theory of Change (ToC) note is a short, structured explanation of how and why your program will lead to desired outcomes. It’s especially useful for donor communications, program design alignment, and MEL planning.

✍🏽 Core Components

1. Problem Statement
Briefly outline the core issue you’re addressing. Ground it in evidence.

2. Target Population
Who is affected? Who benefits? Include intersectional or exclusion considerations.

3. Change Pathway
What are the key steps/activities that will trigger change? Use causal logic, not just chronology.

4. Assumptions
List what needs to be true for the ToC to work (e.g. policy stability, stakeholder buy-in).

5. Outcomes
Short-term, medium-term, and long-term — and how they connect.

6. Indicators (optional)
You may include early thoughts on how you’ll measure each outcome.

✏️ Sample Structure

Problem: High adolescent anemia in tribal blocks of X district, with poor uptake of IFA tablets.

Activities:  
1. Community nutrition sessions for adolescent girls  
2. Health worker engagement using visual aids  
3. School-based distribution tracking system  

Assumptions:  
- Girls will attend sessions  
- Schools will cooperate with distribution  
- Health workers will not be overburdened

Outcomes:  
Short-term: Increased knowledge of IFA benefits  
Mid-term: Increased regular intake of IFA  
Long-term: Reduced prevalence of anemia

✅ Do’s and Don’ts

Do’s	Don’ts
Use plain language	Overload with jargon
Ground assumptions in reality	Leave out local risks/barriers
Align with MEL plans	Treat ToC as fixed — it evolves
Make outcomes measurable	Use vague claims like “empowerment” with no link

🔍 Quick Checklist

Clear problem + target group
Plausible, evidence-based causal pathway
Articulated assumptions
Measurable outcome stages
Consistent with program design

Need a full sample? See sample_theory_of_change_note.pdf