Climate Adaptation Trap

Context

This model simulates how insufficient or delayed investment in climate adaptation can create escalating risk and a funding spiral. Failure to act early worsens vulnerability, strains donor confidence, and exacerbates future shocks.

Key Variables

Climate Risk: Base level of exposure to climate shocks.
Adaptation Effort: Reduces climate risk through investment.
Funding Gap: Difference between needed and actual adaptation financing.
Donor Confidence: Drops if funding gaps widen, compounding the problem.

Feedback Loops

Reinforcing Risk Loop: Underinvestment → rising risk → worsening funding → more underinvestment.
Stabilizing Loop (if achieved): High adaptation investment → lowered risk → strengthened donor and government commitment.

Policy Relevance

Applicable for designing early warning systems, resilient infrastructure funding, or local adaptation strategies where mobilizing finance is critical.

Region/Application

Coastal India (Odisha), drought-prone Rajasthan, climate-resilient agriculture zones, or urban flood adaptation planning (e.g., Mumbai).