🌱 Environmental Change Risk Estimation – Logic

This tool estimates climate fragility and environmental risk levels for a district using key ecological indicators.

🔢 Inputs

  • Forest Cover (% of total area)
  • Households with Drinking Water Nearby (%)
  • Mean Annual Rainfall Deviation (from baseline)
  • Mean Temperature Change (°C over baseline)

📈 Scoring Logic

Each variable is scored between 0–1 and weighted to compute a composite risk score.

Indicator Weight Risk Thresholds
Forest Cover (%) 0.3 <25% = high risk
Drinking Water (%) 0.3 <60% = high risk
Rainfall Deviation (mm) 0.2 >100mm = high
Temperature Change (°C) 0.2 >1.5°C = high

Risk categories:

  • 0.7–1.0 = High Environmental Fragility
  • 0.4–0.69 = Moderate Fragility
  • <0.4 = Low Risk

🧠 Example

Forest cover = 21%, Water access = 55%, Rainfall dev = 120mm, Temp rise = 1.8°C

→ Score = Weighted composite = 0.78 → High Fragility Risk

This helps local planners prioritize resilience and climate-linked planning.